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They noted, among other rebuttals, that the program correctly predicted recidivism in both white and black defendants at similar rates. The debate continues, but when Dressel read about it, she realized that it masked a different problem. They recruited volunteers through a crowdsourcing site. Based on that, they had to guess if the defendant would commit another crime within two years.
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Other teams have found similar results. When he and Dressel designed more complicated algorithms, they never improved on the bare-bones version that used just age and prior convictions.
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Maybe this is just as good as it gets. Maybe the whole concept of predicting recidivism is going to stall at odds that are not that much better than a coin toss. Sharad Goel , from Stanford University, sees it a little differently.